Insights & Research
2026 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook
Macroeconomic uncertainty, the rise of stablecoins, industrialized AI, modernized data, and a sharper defense against financial crime.
Key Questions
Q1
How could the macroeconomic realities in 2026 impact the banking and capital markets industry’s revenues and profitability?
Q2
What does the disruptive entrance of stablecoins mean for banks and payment firms?
Q3
What should banks do in 2026 to industrialize AI at scale?
Q4
Will some banks’ AI ambitions be thwarted by their brittle and fragmented data infrastructure?
Q5
Can banks’ defenses keep up with the increasing speed and sophistication of financial crime?
2026 appears to be shaping up as a defining year for US banks. Macroeconomic uncertainty, diverging consumer sentiment, and persistent inflation could test banks’ revenues and profitability, even as strong capital positions provide resilience.
Banks could be forced to defend margins, diversify fee income, and prepare for increased competition from nonbank entities.
The payments landscape also seems to be at a crossroads. Stablecoins, backed by the new Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act legislation, could impact deposit flows and challenge traditional payment rails. Banks should decide whether to issue, custody, process, or partner — and do so quickly, as tokenized deposits and programmable money reshape customer expectations.
Themes shaping the year
- Sustaining growth while balancing optimism and caution
- Deposit disruption and stablecoin opportunities
- Five steps to move beyond isolated AI projects
- Modernizing data infrastructure
- Dynamic approach to fighting financial crime
Meanwhile, AI is at an inflection point. Many banks are under pressure to scale and move beyond pilots, but 2026 will likely demand robust, enterprise-level strategies, governance, and a disciplined approach to return on investment. Agentic AI offers breakthrough potential, but only if supported by AI-ready data — accurate, timely, broad, and securely governed. Without this data foundation, even the most ambitious models could stall.
Separately, financial crime risks are escalating, fueled by AI-enabled fraud, sanctions complexity, and rising costs. Integrated, tech-driven defenses are imperative.
This report offers potential prescriptions for banks in the above areas. The leaders who act decisively in 2026 may shape the future of banking.
Section 1
Sustaining growth while balancing optimism and caution in 2026
The range of possible scenarios for the US economy in 2026 remains wide, with possibly yet another year of surprises for the US banking industry. Banks will likely be watching carefully for the impact of tariffs and the strength of the labor market. At this point, there are at least three possible scenarios for how the US economy might evolve in 2026.
In the downside scenario, the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth could be apparent as the year unfolds, with the potential for higher inflation and a more stressed labor market. GDP growth could stall or even turn slightly negative for a quarter. The US dollar could also continue to lose ground.
Conversely, in the upside scenario, these risks could remain dormant and keep the economy humming without any major hiccups.
A third, more probable, baseline scenario is the middle path. In this scenario, the economy is predicted to stumble briefly in 2026, but the setback is short, and recovery follows with GDP growth reaching about 1.4% in 2026, down from 1.8% in 2025.1
Looking ahead to 2026, consumer sentiment could be further tested, dampening spending in a meaningful way. Household debt, as of the second quarter of 2025, reached a peak of $18.4 trillion. Consumer confidence has also declined recently,2 but there is a bifurcation in sentiment: The affluent continue to spend and feel more confident, while the middle class is feeling “squeezed.”3 The year-over-year spending growth for lower income households was 0.3%, compared with 2.2% for higher-income households in August 2025.4 This disparity may well continue into 2026. According to Deloitte’s economic forecast, aggregate real consumer spending could grow by 1.4% in 2026 in the baseline scenario.5
Business spending, on the other hand, seems to face a mixed outlook. While AI-related projects, particularly data centers, could boost business investments,6 uncertainty around tariffs may restrain business confidence. Deloitte forecasts business investment to grow by about 3% in 2026, slightly lower than 3.6% in 2025.
The job market also began to show weakness, with a perceptible decline in job openings and higher unemployment among younger workers.7 In 2026, wage growth may moderate, and the unemployment rate could rise from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.5%, as per Deloitte’s economic forecast.8
The inflation picture remains tentative. After modest gains in 2025, the Consumer Price Index may hover at roughly 3.2% in 2026. But with a weakening job market, the Federal Reserve may drop interest rates to 3.125% by the end of 2026.9
Deloitte forecasts that the yield curve should steepen, as long-term yields may remain high due to higher inflation expectations, concerns about the federal debt, and the strength of the US dollar.10 Short-term yields could decline due to a lower rate environment in 2026.
How the macroeconomic environment could impact the banking industry
Banks are likely to enter 2026 on a relatively strong footing, following resilient earnings in the first three quarters of 2025. However, they may face some headwinds in net interest income in 2026, driven largely by lower rates and a slowing economy.
Net interest income improved by 4% in the first half of 2025 after a decline in 2024.11 However, net interest income growth in 2026 could be modest, likely driven by lower loan yields. Deposit costs, however, should continue to drop. The average cost of interest-bearing deposits had already declined to 2.5% in the first six months of 2025.12 But deposit betas may remain relatively low, particularly for regional banks, as the competition for deposits remains high.